A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
